The West Must Get Ready for War

 The United States and its NATO allies worked hard for nearly two years trying to avoid an escalation of what Putin called a special military operation in Ukraine. The West delayed sending powerful weapons to Ukraine, including tanks, missiles, and fighter jets. The Russian leader used his nuclear weapons as a deterrence to blackmail the West. The Western powers’ current strategies and efforts to avoid a major war in Europe are not likely to succeed.   Putin is not interested in peace and stability in Europe without getting his way. He wants to control or have influence over Ukraine and other European countries.   After nearly two years of war, the Russian leader said his plan for starting the war remained unchanged. He wants to denazify Ukraine. 

Putin does not have the military to defeat the Ukrainian forces on the battlefield. However, he is working to create instability in the world to give him advantages. For example, Putin appears willing to support North Korea to improve its nuclear weapons, primarily to get missiles from the Korean leader. Putin claims that he has no intention to fight NATO while he is threatening Finland, a new member of NATO. He attempted to drag China on his side against the West. Unfortunately for him, China fears economic consequences, but that could change. The West, mainly all democratic nations, must get ready for war while dealing with Putin in Ukraine. The situation in Ukraine is uncertain. The world does not want a war, but Putin will continue to make the world unstable. 

What is autocracy? It is a system or form of government in which one person has absolute power. Autocracy is the opposite of democracy. One of the most significant differences between autocracy and democracy is democracy is fundamentally governed by the separation of power among executive, legislative, and judiciary. In contrast, for autocracy, the president or head of the executive branch controls the legislative and judiciary if they exist. This means the lives of millions of citizens in an autocratic state are in the hands of one person. The people have no way to replace their leader peacefully. Usually, an authoritarian leader controls the policies and rigs the elections repeatedly to be in power for an unforeseeable future. 

Some of the well-known autocratic countries in the world today are Russia, China, North Korea, and other third-world countries. Autocracy hinders human development, freedom, security, self-determination, human rights, dignity, and other God-given rights. Stopping the spreading of autocracy worldwide is essential for equality and the right to choose one’s destiny. 

The war in Ukraine could answer whether the United States can help stop the spreading of autocracy. The United States is the most powerful democratic nation today, with the resources to defeat Putin’s forces with the help of other democratic countries. The war in Ukraine poses a threat not only to the Ukrainian people but to worldwide security. The defeat of Ukraine could strengthen other autocratic nations to grab lands or seek control over other states. Regrettably, a few influential Republicans could not figure out the need to force Putin out of Ukraine unconditionally. Evidence does not support the reasoning that Putin is weakened militarily and could not fight in the future after a peace deal. Putin failed to defeat Chechens in 1994 -1996 but returned later in 1999 and conquered the broke-away state in 2009. 

 African Union unconditionally wants the democratically elected president of Niger back in power in 15 days. The world democratic communities welcome and support the position of the African Union. Also, many political scholars will agree because the military provided no sound, credible, and reasonable justification to overthrow the president of Niger. However, what can the African leaders do if the military refuses to comply? Sanctions are not adequate measures because they are mainly likely to hurt civilians. The coup leader claimed that the army had removed the administration due to inadequate security in the country. Historically, the people of Niger are experiencing poverty, the presence of extremist militant groups, and corruption. These social and political issues should be decided at the polls, not by military intervention.

While military intervention is not a suitable solution in Africa, it should not be taken off the table. Many African leaders are incompetent, corrupt, and do not respect their constitutions. Regrettably, they hijack the democratic processes and their people’s future. They do not allow free and fair elections making it almost impossible for the people to replace those corrupt leaders. Military intervention is necessary as a last resort under these conditions:

• When there is evidence of manipulating elections, suppressing votes, bribing, and engaging in illegal activities that undermine the people’s ability to choose who they want as their leaders, democracy perishes.
• The leader changed the constitution to stay in power to the detriment of the people. The term limit is the foundation of democracy. It allows a smooth      transition of power.

The above conditions make the people and the democratic system powerless and useless. The keys to stability in Africa are commitment to democratic principles and free and fair elections.

Putin of Russia started the war in February 2022 with the objectives of replacing the President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, installing a puppet administration, and cementing his control over Crimea and the break-away regions in the east. Putin was confident of accomplishing the task within a few days but had no clue that his military forces were paper tigers. Despite Ukraine's limited military assistance, mainly received from the United States between 2014 and 2022, Putin's forces could not overrun the Ukrainian forces before waking the sleeping giant, the United States.

Without putting boots or military forces in Ukraine, the United States still destroyed Putin's dream by mobilizing its NATO allies. They began sending the world's best military equipment to the Ukrainian president to help defend his country. After 18th months of fighting, it's evident that Putin can't achieve his goals in Ukraine. He has lost the war but continues fighting for unknown reasons.

The world may wonder why Putin continues fighting when no path to success exists. A rational leader will end the war for the following reasons:

• The Russian military is weakening after many months of fighting and cannot achieve desirable outcomes.
• Targeting Ukrainian civilians backfired and created worldwide animosity toward      Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Also, several Western leaders who were reluctant earlier to provide sophisticated weapons have decided to send state-of-the-art military equipment to Ukraine.
• The mutiny or rebellion of the Wagner troops signaled the need for Putin to withdraw his forces and focus on his nation's security. The Russian Federation is at risk because it is not in any position to neutralize significant internal threats while many of the nation's military forces are in Ukraine.  
• Destroying Ukraine's ability to deliver grains to the world community would have      little impact on Ukraine's war effort. It will likely strengthen the argument that Russia is an international pariah using food as a weapon. Also, its fallout could result in social and political unrest in third-world countries. 
• Propaganda alone does not win a war. Putin announced that the counteroffensive had failed while ignoring that the Ukrainians had not deployed most of their well-trained and equipped forces. They seek weak spots and clear      minefields before bringing in the main forces. The counteroffensive needs six to eight months. 

How this war ends will determine the future of democracy. Also, the ending will signal worldwide peace, stability, or more wars in the future. The most important thing right now is supporting the Ukrainian people to get through this critical period in their history successfully.

President Putin did not foresee what would happen in Ukraine. He sent his military forces to Ukraine, believing his troops would defeat the Ukrainian army within days and not continue fighting for more than a month or year. He did not realize the Ukrainian president’s determination to fight for his country and democracy. Also, Putin forgot that Mr. Trump is no longer the president of the United States. The United States has a new visionary president, Joe Biden, capable of bringing all NATO allies and other western nations together to stop his invasion of a democratic country.

Putin’s most significant miscalculation was believing that the United States and its NATO allies would Budge by his nuclear war threat. The democratic nations are not taking his threat lightly but know Mr. Putin is not suicidal. He knows deploying a weapon of mass destruction could quickly turn his few allies, including China, against him. Also, such a development will likely trigger a massive unknown military response by the western power that could threaten his survival as president of Russia.

No one can read Putin’s mind, but we know he is like a wounded lion determined to do what it takes to survive. He is being corned and desperate. Unfortunately, his closest allies are not helping by not telling him to pull out his struggling forces from Ukraine. Putin’s latest offensive operation intended to gain ground before western weaponry arrives in Ukraine has failed. Instead, the Ukrainians are poised to retake their territories, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

President Putin, a former KGB agent, blamed the United States and its western allies for the disintegration of the supreme Soviet Union. Many scholars disagree because the nation’s failure was due to its inability to overcome the test of time in the 20th century. It was almost impossible to control the economic, social, and political determination of the Soviet people when the government could no longer 100% control information and rely on the socialist system to meet people’s needs. Notably, the people wanted better living conditions that socialism could not provide. The Soviet leadership rejected capitalism without realizing that socialism was not practical in the 20th century and beyond.

Also, after years of promoting Russia’s military forces and equipment as among the best on the planet, Putin was convinced that he had a superior military to make his dream of re-establishing the supreme Soviet Empire a reality. However, his so-called special operation in Ukraine, now almost a year, revealed his military’s weaknesses. Russia does not have well-trained, conventional capable forces and modern equipment to defeat the Ukrainian Armed forces or any equipped military forces.

President Putin has two choices as following:

• Pull the Russian military Forces out of Ukraine, including Crimea, and begin an honest negotiation with Ukraine and the Western alliance. His unprovoked, unnecessary war took too many civilian lives in Ukraine. It also destroyed the infrastructure that will require billions of dollars to replace. It was evident in the past ten months that the United States and its NATO allies avoided sending heavy fighting vehicles to Ukraine, hoping that Putin would recognize his error and leave Ukraine to prevent a bigger war in Europe.
• Putin may continue his so-called special operation and risk a humiliating defeat in Ukraine. The United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other NATO members are running out of patience with Putin’s special military operation that is targeting and murdering civilians in Ukraine. Those countries are now willing to send powerful war-fighting equipment to Ukraine to force Russia out of the country. Putin's forces may be forced out before 2024. Forcing Russians out of Ukraine could complicate Russians’ ability to negotiate for any sanction relief after the war.  

Many military experts, analysts, and senior officers in Russia know there is no realistic chance of keeping the annexed Ukrainian territories. Ukraine is more powerful than ever before. The nation has well-trained forces and equipment than Russia. Putin needs to accept the above first choice to end the war.  

The United States-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington DC, December 13-15, creates opportunities for several struggling African countries to articulate their business-friendly policies and climates to attract investors. For example, African leaders could collaborate with USA officials and the business community to promote investment opportunities in Africa rather than only looking for handouts from the Americans and taking pictures for political purposes as usual. However, it has yet to be determined how many participating African leaders are aware and prepared to utilize the available resources to improve their people's lives. Here are some of the things the summit intends to address:

• Partnerships that create jobs, fuel economic growth, and advance equitable prosperity. 
• Technology-driven innovation in Africa to improve private sectors and education. 
• African leaders share their economic priorities and perspectives with officials from the National Security Council, Department of State, USAID, U.S. Trade Representative, Treasury, Department of Commerce, and Millennium Challenge Corporation.

The summit demonstrates the United States' commitment to African countries. It underscores how the U.S. values its relationship with Africa as China and Russia, non-democratic states, attempt to influence African nations. Russia and China took advantage of the previous U.S. administration's failure to pay attention to Africa's economic and political challenges for several reasons, including the Covid-19 pandemic. The United States wants to highlight the following: 

• Africa and the United States shared values to foster new economic engagement.
• Reinforce the US-Africa commitment to democracy and human rights.
• Advance peace, security, and good governance worldwide.

We hope our African leaders will learn to support their countries from this summit. 

Please visit Liberianfuturedefender.com for updates. 

             Arming and supporting the Ukrainian people by the United States and its NATO allies put the world on notice that no nation would get away with illegally attacking an independent country, hoping to take it over or replace its government. President Putin is paying the price for his misperception and miscalculation about Ukraine. He underestimated the will of the Ukrainian people to fight for their freedom and the determination of the West to support Ukraine. At this point, Putin understands that the Russian conventional military forces have no chance against Ukrainian forces. But, again, he is making another miscalculation. He thinks threatening the United States and its NATO allies or using Nukes could still help him win the war. His idea is more dangerous for Russia than for Ukraine. Putin needs to figure it out quickly. The message from the West is clear. Putin is not going to win or get away with anything. He can end the war today by leaving all occupied areas in Ukraine to save his military forces.

The war in Ukraine provides compelling evidence that United Nations (UN) is not ready to prevent World War III. After World War II, the League of Nations was replaced with the UN to prevent another world war.

               The UN has no way of dealing with Putin. He has violated UN and international standards, yet he still has veto power. The UN needs to strengthen its ability to prevent or stop the unprovoked war in Ukraine. All peace-loving nations must condemn Russia’s war activities in Ukraine.

           The United States and its NATO partners did an incredible job supporting Ukraine and defending democracy. The western countries spent billions of dollars on military assistance and humanitarian support for the people of Ukraine. Putin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine creates worldwide economic challenges and food shortages. Putin is not accountable to his people. Therefore, he might continue fighting regardless of economic and human losses, hoping the western leaders would give up due to economic hardship and political pressure. Putin's miscalculation could cost many lives and cause instability worldwide.

           The western power needs to be aware of Putin's game plan. His only chance of gaining an advantage is to threaten NATO with his nuclear weapon or NUKE. He believes he can use it as a deterrence to deny Ukrainians the weapons they need to stop his forces. This strategy appears to be working. There is a danger not only to Ukraine but to all of Europe. There is no realistic possibility that Russia will use weapons of mass destruction without Russia's existence being threatening. Putin could potentially change the geopolitical landscape on the continent and send a green light to other dictators to use NUKES as deterrence to get what they want.

                The west needs to take appropriate actions to send Putin's forces home. Ukraine is not likely to gain an advantage over Russia in this conflict without airpower, more long-range artilleries, and intelligence. Therefore, the United States and its allies must provide the right weapons to force Putin to go home or come to the negotiating table. At the beginning of July, Putin began showing signs of realizing the limited capacity of his conventional military power. He told the Ukrainians to negotiate now to end the war, or there would be no chance of doing so in the future. He knows his military has no chance of defeating Ukraine as long as the United States and its NATO allies stand firm behind Ukraine. 

              African Leaders' Actions Have Long-Term Negative Impacts

Many leaders in Africa do not foresee the long-term damages their desires and determination to stay in power, enrich their relatives, associates, and themselves could have on their respective countries. Those leaders are willing to make political and economic deals that could compromise democratic values, put more citizens in poverty, create national instabilities, and set the stage for violence in the streets. Many of those leaders are being blinded by greed, power, and the desire for wealth. Some turned to the non-democratic superpowers for protection when the western countries demand democracy, justice, and economic opportunities for their people.

             Ethiopia is the most recent example. Instead of seeking a peaceful resolution with those fighting in the country's Tigray region, Ethiopia's leadership sent its military force to subdue the people. Thousands of Ethiopians have been killed and wounded. When the United States pressured the Ethiopian government, hoping to end the violence, the Ethiopian government proposed a military alliance with Russia and China to the detriment of the people. Please click here http://opr.news/67ceeaa6210714en_lr?link=1&client=news  for details from Ethiopia.

           The Liberian Future Defender is a non-profit media organization providing unbiased social, political, and economic analyses hoping to assist Liberia and other African nations in improving Africans' lives through democracy. Would you please visit liberianfuturedefender.com for additional analyses?

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